March Madness isn’t just the greatest spectacle in college basketball- it’s also the last chance for prospects to impress pro scouts with their play in actual games. Over the years we’ve seen players shoot up draft boards by coming up big in the tournament. In this two part series, we’ll take a look at ten players that are trending up after strong opening weekends.
Shabazz Napier, PG, Connecticut
Napier, a senior, single-handedly led UConn to an overtime victory against St. Joseph’s in the second round. He led the Huskies in points, assists and rebounds (24-6-8, respectively) and hit five free throws in overtime to seal the victory. In the third round against Villanova, he was limited to just 25 minutes due to a shin injury but displayed his toughness by returning late in the game to perform his typical heroics- including hitting a circus layup that left the crowd in awe. Just how clutch is Napier? Of his 25 points, 21 came in the second half. The way Shabazz is playing right now is reminiscent of Kemba Walker’s legendary postseason run for the Huskies in 2011.
Coming into the tournament Napier was projected to go in the late second round, likely between picks 50 and 55. With UConn set to face a Georges Niang-less Iowa State in the Sweet 16, he could keep playing for a while. I expect him to move up to the mid second round (42 to 47 range) and he could jump as high as the early second round if Connecticut can make a run deep into the tournament.
Isaiah Austin, C, Baylor
Austin (No. 3 in 2012) has drawn comparisons to former Baylor forward Perry Jones (7th in 2010) as a highly touted recruit that has not lived up to expectations. Through two games this tournament; Austin has 30 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks while shooting a spectacular 64 percent from the field. He’s also shown his range, hitting a three-pointer against Nebraska. In the next round, Austin will face a tough challenge matching up against Wisconsin standout Frank Kaminsky. He will need to continue his strong play as scouts cooled on him- his stats actually regressed this season after he elected to return for his sophomore year.
Most analysts project Austin as a mid-second round pick. Despite being a true seven footer, he has a reputation for being soft and he needs to add weight to his wiry frame- he’s listed generously at 225 pounds. If he declares, Austin will be a wildcard in the upcoming draft as some teams are wary because he is blind in his right eye. That aside, Austin has a high ceiling but will be a project at the NBA level. Look for him to go in the late first round or early second.
Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State
Payne will be rocketing up draft boards after posting the best game of the tournament thus far on Thursday night. In just 24 minutes against Delaware, he scored 41 points. He shot 10-of-15 from the field, including 4-for-5 from beyond the arc and a perfect 17-for-17 from the free throw line. On top of all that, Payne collected 8 rebounds and recorded a block. The follow up on Saturday was less impressive- 12 points and 4 rebounds on 4-for-10 shooting- but he was plagued by foul trouble throughout the game. Payne will be tested in the Sweet 16 against a Virginia team that plays excellent team defense, and he may get even more opportunities to showcase his talents as many expect this Spartan team to make a run to the Final Four.
Payne is projected as a late first round pick. He is the prototypical stretch four: 7’4” wingspan, explosive athleticism, outside shooting touch and he can put the ball on the floor to drive to the basket. I expect that he could move up as high as the mid first round (15-20 range). He needs to add muscle to his frame and will be hurt by the fact that he is already 23, which will keep him from being a lottery pick.
Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee
Of all the players in the tournament, Stokes has likely benefited the most from his play so far. Thanks to his appearance in the First Four, he has already played three games. The raw numbers are incredible- 61 points and 45 rebounds, going for a double-double in all three contests. He’s been efficient offensively, shooting 56 percent from the field and 86 percent from the free throw line. However, it must be noted that Tennessee’s three opponents have been Iowa, Mercer and UMass. While no one has an easy road in the tournament, his certainly hasn’t been the toughest. Next up is Michigan, a game where Stokes will face double teams from the Wolverines “Morford” combo of frontcourt bruisers Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford.
Stokes has not yet received the attention he deserves from scouts- the highest he has been projected is a late second round pick and some think he’ll go undrafted. This is utterly ridiculous for a double-double machine- he averages one. The consistency is there- 9 and 7 as a freshman, 12 and 9 as a sophomore, and now 15 and 10 as a junior- all while averaging over 50 percent shooting each season. Size wise he has the Carlos Boozer build- 6-9, long arms and at 260 pounds he’s a load to deal with in the post. Expect to see him drafted early to mid second round, where I think he will be a steal for whatever team picks him up.
Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky
Of all the top prospects in college basketball, Julius Randle is the last one still alive in March Madness. That makes him the winner by default, if you will. While Joel Embiid sat out with injury, Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker played their way out of the tournament in underwhelming fashion. That means Randle will get a chance to make his case for why he should be #1 overall pick in the 2014 draft while the competition is sitting at home. He’s done well enough so far, with a double-double in both of his games, but it will take much more than that for him to jump ahead of the other three mega-prospects. To make that jump, Randle needs to start by having a podium game against Louisville and keep playing at that level all the way to the Final Four. Playing around his season averages (15 points and 10 rebounds) isn’t going to be enough. Right now, Randle is Top 5, but a string of 20-20 games is what he needs to move into the top spot.
That’s it for the first half of my two part series on players who increased their draft stock this past weekend. Look for part two tomorrow.
Jay Hillman is the host of WIUX’s Excessive Celebration on Saturday afternoons from 1-2 PM ET. You can follow Jay on Twitter @JayChillman or email him at jphillma@indiana.edu.
