If you haven’t read Part 1, check it out on the WIUX blog. This is Part 2 of my analysis of which prospects did the most to raise their draft stock in the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.
Jordan Adams, SG, UCLA
Adams came into the tournament fresh off a great performance against Arizona in the Pac-12 title game and has continued his hot streak thus far. He’s shooting 75 percent on two point field goals and 63 percent overall while putting up a combined 40 points in the first two games. Adams is not just a scorer, and fills up the stat sheet accordingly- he has 13 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals as well. On top of all his production he’s been careful with the ball and only turned it over twice.
Adams draft stock took a big hit late last season, when he broke his foot and missed both the Pac-12 tournament and the NCAA tournament. He’s turned that around this season by winning the Pac-12 tourney and now leading UCLA all the way to the Sweet 16, where they will face No. 1 overall seed Florida. Adams is a big guard at 6-5 but questions about his defense, athleticism and conditioning have limited him to being a projected second rounder. With the way he’s played in the past 10 days he has moved into the late first round, and a playoff bound team will be happy to add his prolific scoring ability next season.
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
Montrezl (the L is silent) is another guy like Adams who used a big performance in his conference championship game as a launching point for a good tournament run. He has been able to make up for poor shooting by rebounding at a high rate snagging double digit rebounds in his last three games. His shot blocking through two games has been surprising- he averaged only 1.4 blocks this season but has 5 so far.
Harrell first gained the attention of NBA scouts during Louisville’s title run last season, particularly with his play against Syracuse in the Big East championship game. Since then he has been considered a mid-first round prospect for the 2014 draft. If he continues his rebounding streak and shoots just a little bit better, Harrell will likely find himself taken with a late lottery pick.
Cleanthony Early, F, Wichita State
Early is one of the few guys who were able to increase their draft stock despite being eliminated from the tournament. In the loss against Kentucky, he showed that he could hold his own against elite competition by scoring 31 points while shooting 70 percent from the field. Not to mention that he threw down an absolutely vicious dunk in the faces of James Young and Willie Cauley-Stein (LINK: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2003162-wichita-states-cleanthony-early-throws-down-huge-and-one-slam-dunk-vs-kentucky). The biggest question about Early all season was whether or not he could get it done against big-time schools. The best way to handle that criticism is to respond exactly as he did- by setting a season high in points against the preseason No. 1 team. So how else could he bump up his stock? Why, by scoring 23 points in just 19 minutes against Cal Poly (although he only shot 60 percent in that game).
Most mock drafts put Early in the late first round. If he can couple his great tourney performance with good testing numbers at the combine (combine is crucial for players from mid-major conferences) he should jump into the middle of the first round. Much like Adreian Payne in Part 1, the fact that Early turns 23 in April limits his upside and will likely prevent him from jumping into the lottery.
T.J. Warren, SF, NC State
After a disappointing freshman season, Warren exploded this year, averaging almost 25 points per game. In all likelihood, he will finish second to Creighton’s Doug McDermott in Naismith Player of the Year voting. His draft stock has surged lately, with his team making a run deep into the ACC tournament (including a big win over Syracuse) in order to secure an NCAA tournament bid. NC State won in the First Four before losing to St. Louis in the second round. In those two games Warren scored 53 points, shot 52 percent from the field, collected 13 rebounds and grabbed 6 steals.
The concerns about his free throw shooting are real (an atrocious 6-of-14 in the loss to St. Louis) and he isn’t much of an outside shooter, which limits his upside. Warren is considered a late first round pick, but I think he will rise to the mid first. Warren is the type of player a team can fall in love with, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him drafted as high as the late lottery. He can flat out score, but there are a lot of negatives scouts point out. He may be better than other small forwards in the draft are today, but his upside is limited by comparison.
Xavier Thames, G, San Diego State
Thames has come up big so far in the tournament- he’s compiled 53 points, 10 assists and 4 steals. It’s really a classic case of a well-coached senior coming up huge to carry his team deep into the tournament. Like many of those players, he was considered an undrafted free agent prospect before the madness started. Every year, the NBA Draft sees guys sneak into the end of the second round by coming up big late in March. Thames has played well but still needs to do more if he wants to here his name called in June. It’s likely that his draft hopes hinge on the Aztecs upsetting Arizona in the Sweet 16 and making a very deep run- at least into the Final Four. Don’t think this is impossible- last year Peyton Siva did it and before him Dee Brown did it in 2006.
Jay Hillman is the host of WIUX’s Excessive Celebration on Saturdays from 1-2 PM. You can follow Jay on Twitter @JayChillman and email him at jphillma@indiana.edu.
