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(12/29/14 6:51pm)
Hello ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Second Annual BerlinAwards! I’m Zak Berliner, your host, master of ceremonies and benefactor of these glorious awards, which are given to the most outstanding NFL players in Fantasy Football. The players who will be honored tonight have given, as athletes like to say, 110 percent effort to attain excellence (or mediocrity, in some cases). Today, we will be giving out four awards. All of the statistics mentioned are as of the completion of Week 14 in order to give our esteemed panel ample time to deliberate. Without further ado, let’s get on with the show!
Our first award is the Rookie of the Year Award, given to this 2014 season’s most outstanding rookie in fantasy football. Factors considered were total fantasy points scored and fantasy points per game. The nominees are: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills; Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers; Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants; Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; and Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints. The BerlinAward goes to … Mike Evans! The former Texas A&M Aggie has been spectacular this season. As shown by the nominees, this season’s class of receivers has been outstanding in itself. Among rookie receivers, Evans is tied for second in total number of receptions with 53, leads by a wide margin in receiving yards with 890, and is tied for most receiving touchdowns with 8. In addition, Evans’s 17.27 PPR points per game is second among all rookies, and his 190 total fantasy points leads all 2014 rookies. Clearly, Evans is deserving of this award.
Our next award is also our least glorious one: the Biggest Disappointment Award. This “honor” is given to the player that has fallen farthest from his preseason expectations. The nominees are: Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins; Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers; Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams; Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Oakland Raiders; and Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots. The award goes to … Zac Stacy, running back for the Rams! Last season, Stacy was nominated for the Rookie of the Year BerlinAward. He was also a candidate for NFL Rookie of the Year. These accolades raised expectations for this season. Entering 2014, Stacy was ranked by ESPN as No. 11 out of 80 running backs. However, Stacy’s average PPR points per game is 8.41, good for 45th among running backs. Also, his 58.9 total points per game is enough for 55th. These numbers don’t even tell the full story for Stacy, as he has only received a carry in seven of 14 games this season. The catch? He has been healthy the entire year. He has underperformed so much that he has not received double-digit carries in a game since Oct. 5. Unfortunately, Stacy was unable to make it this evening because he has been replaced by Tre Mason, so Tre, come on down!
The next BerlinAward is the Biggest Surprise Award, given to the player who has exceeded expectations this season. The nominees are: Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens; Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants; Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts; Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers; and DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans. The award goes to … Justin Forsett! Entering this season, Forsett was slotted to be the third running back for the Baltimore Ravens, but the suspension of Ray Rice (the 2-game one) moved him up to second string. In the ESPN pre-season rankings, Forsett was not ranked in the top 80 running backs. However, the former Cal Golden Bear played outstanding. Through Week 14, he is averaging 84.08 rushing yards per game on 14.92 carries, yielding an exceptional average yards per carry of 5.64. He also has 7 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for fourth among all running backs this season. His 202.6 total PPR is sixth among running backs, and his 16.89 points per contest is good for eighth. Justin Forsett, come and get your BerlinAward!
Our final award tonight is also the most coveted, the Fantasy Football MVP Award. This award is given to the best player in fantasy football in total points scored and points per game. The nominees are: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers; Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos; Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts; Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers; and Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos. The BerlinAward goes to ... Andrew Luck, quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts!! Luck has been unstoppable this season. His average points per game (24.81) and total fantasy points (297.74) are the highest of any player in the league. His 4,011 total passing yards are good for second among all quarterbacks, and he is one of only two players to currently be over 4,000 passing yards. His 34 passing touchdowns are also good for second among all signal callers. He is the only player with at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Luck is also sporting a nice 64.05 completion percentage. Overall, Andrew Luck has been the most dominant man in fantasy football this season and is entirely deserving of this award.
Those are all the awards we have for this evening. I would like to congratulate our winners Mike Evans, Zac Stacy, Justin Forsett and Andrew Luck. I would also like to acknowledge the skill of all of our nominees. Finally, I would like to thank the fantasy football community. Without you, the BerlinAwards would not be possible. Be sure to tune in to the BerlinAwards next year! Goodnight!
Follow Zak on Twitter @zakberliner1 and listen to him on "The War Room" Fridays from 6-7 pm
(12/08/14 1:37am)
This 2014 NFL season has seemed incredibly bizarre to me in that it seems as if, for the first time, the running game is almost irrelevant. It appears as if the NFL has reached the peak of a steady progression to a pass-only league, where running backs only matter when they are catching passes. However, I wanted to see if there is any substance to this feeling, so I decided to crunch the numbers. I analyzed the numbers from two perspectives: the players’ and the teams’.
I first analyzed trends in individual running back statistics. I measured the trends in average rushing attempts per game, average rushing yards per game, average yards per carry per game, and average total rushing touchdowns; I took data starting from the 2006 season up through 2014, though I only measured up to Week 13 each year because that is how far the 2014 season has progressed. The running backs I used each season were the top 64 in number of carries as of Week 13 (the top 64 can account for a committee of two running backs for every team).
In regard to average attempts per game (Figure 1), it reached its peak in 2007 with 12.99 carries. The data then exponentially declined until 2011, where the average number of attempts was 11.87. After shooting back up in 2012, the numbers fell linearly to this year. 2014’s 11.74 carries per game is the lowest it has been beginning with 2006.
Figure 1
The fact that the number of attempts per game for individual running backs could mean one of two things: either teams are progressively using more running backs by committee, or they simply are running less. Strangely, not all of the data of individual running backs reflects this conclusion.
In average rushing yards per game (Figure 2), the overall trend was similar to that of attempts. The average yards peaked in 2007 at 53.79 yards per game. Though the data did not follow the same exponential decay of attempts, the numbers still steadily decreased until 2013, where they hit the significantly lower mark of 47.84 yards per game. This season, that number has risen almost a full yard to 48.74, but it is still quite less than the average yards in 2006-2012.
Figure 2
These results could indicate either simply less running or worse running in general. The next statistic, though, will eliminate one of those two possibilities.
Average yards per carry per game (Figure 3) differed from all the other categories in trend. Essentially, there was no consistent trend; the numbers alternated from low yards per carry to high yards per carry every year. The lowest average yards per carry surprisingly came in 2006 with 3.898 yards per carry, slightly less than 2013’s 3.900. However, the most shocking result is that 2014 has the third-highest average at 4.086 yards per carry.
Figure 3
This information means that running backs this year have been highly efficient and have actually performed quite well given the number of carries they have received. Given this high rushing efficiency, why are the backs not rushing more?
Another strange piece of information is the average total number of rushing touchdowns per running back as of Week 13 each season (Figure 4). This stat reached a high peak of 4.64 in 2008, but it then fell back down and has stayed relatively constant ever since 2011. Technically, the average total touchdowns this season is at its lowest, with a value of 3.28, but it is not that much lower than any of the rest of the information.
Figure 4
This trend could mean that teams are not really using their running backs less in goal line territory than they have in years past, though the numbers could potentially be skewed by a large amount of long rushing touchdowns. Regardless, my analysis of these categories shows that the number of attempts has dropped dramatically, as have rushing yards per game, yet efficiency is incredibly high and touchdowns have remained constant. This data does not really make much sense or clear up confusion. Are teams just using more running backs, which makes each back more rested? A more rested back could be more efficient, and, if teams are still running as much as they always have, then it would make sense for touchdowns to be about the same. The other possibility is that teams are simply not running as much. In that case, carries and yards would drop, but efficiency could increase due to a more rested back or the defense not expecting a run. Football tradition would keep backs having their Red Zone carries and unsuspecting defenses could be more susceptible to long TD runs. But which is correct?
To get closer to an answer, I also analyzed the rushing data from the individual teams since 2006 and averaged them. Specifically, I looked at average total rushing yards per game for the teams in general and what percentage of a team’s plays were running plays. Team rushing yards per game (Figure 5) tells a slightly different story from individual rushing yards. Where individual running backs reached their highest average in 2007, the team average was, by far, the lowest in that same year (109.60). However, 2014 still has the second-lowest average at 111.34 yards per game.
Figure 5
The oddity of 2007 indicates that teams used fewer backs that year, but each back did reasonably well. It also marks the beginning of high popularization of running back by committee, as team rushing yards increased while individual rushing yards decreased. However, the committees of 2014 still have not performed up to the standards set by previous seasons. Something else is adding to the mix.
The final thing I analyzed was the average rush percentage (Figure 6). This statistic is an indication of what percentage of offensive plays called, on average, were runs. Though the progression of this statistic bounced up and down slightly, it was at its maximum in 2006, with teams calling a running play 46.18% of the time. Overall, this statistic has plummeted. It reached its minimum in 2013, where teams called runs on only 43.05% of their plays, but it has only increased slightly this year, rising to a mere 43.16%.
Figure 6
This statistic is really the missing piece. It indicates that teams are running much, much less than they were six, seven, or eight years ago. With teams running the ball less, the running backs are not performing as well.
Overall, both team statistics explain the trends seen in the individual running back stats. Players are receiving fewer carries because teams are running the ball less, and, when they do run the ball, they use committees instead of single backs. Rushing yards per game are also lower both as a result of running by committee and less running in general. Players are running more efficiently, however, most likely a result of the rest they receive from being in a committee that does not run much anyway and defenses no longer expecting teams to run the ball. Touchdowns, however, have remained the same, either as a result of continued usage in the Red Zone or longer touchdown runs. Regardless, the NFL has steadily shied away from the days where one star back carried the team. The NFL is no longer a league defined by its running backs, different from the eras of Jim Brown, Walter Payton, and Emmitt Smith. This is a league for the quarterback, by the quarterback. Passing records keep falling, more QBs seem Hall of Fame eligible, and we observe what is now a passing league.
Follow Zak on Twitter @zakberliner1 and listen to him on "The War Room" Fridays from 6-7 pm
(11/07/14 8:28pm)
All teams have no played at least eight games, and the NFL has officially completed one half of the season. To say that this season has been inconsistent so far would be an understatement. Some teams have been considerably better, some have been worse, but, for most teams, it has been impossible to tell how good they actually are. The same goes for players, though it depends on the position. It seems like most quarterbacks have gotten slightly better, running backs have gotten slightly worse, and, in regard to receivers, the high-profile ones have been under par, but the ones who receive less media coverage have greatly improved. Who are all these players? In this blog, I will analyze two players that have improved in the first half of the season as opposed to the first half of last season and two players that have gotten worse for quarterbacks and running backs.
The story of the quarterback in 2014 has been a bit bizarre. The ones in the spotlight for being great have either, in actuality, been worse from last season, or their teams have not fared particularly well. The players that have been most severely criticized this year have either been phenomenal or abysmal. The criteria on which I will be judging these quarterbacks is average completion percentage, passing yards per game, passing touchdowns per game, and average number of interceptions. One player that has been absolutely amazing as compared to last year is Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. After the Patriots were destroyed in Kansas City by the Chiefs, every pundit and journalist was basically holding a funeral for the career of the dearly beloved Brady. Ever since that Week 4 loss, Brady has been unbelievable. He has not had a game since then with less than 260 yards passing. This year, Brady’s completion percentage of 65.33 percent is up 9 percent as compared to last year’s 56.36 percent. Likewise, his passing yards are up by 30 per game, his touchdowns are up by over 1 full touchdown, and his interceptions are down by about half an interception. All of these increases were some of the largest by any quarterback, and Brady was one of the only quarterbacks to have an increase in all four categories.
In regard to players that have done worse, it has become a national pastime to criticize Geno Smith of the New York Jets, and for good reason. Geno has been worse than he was a year ago, which is pretty difficult to do. His completion percentage has dropped 9 percent, all the way to 51.85 percent. Only Blaine Gabbert has a lower percentage this season, and he’s benched. Smith’s yards have dropped by 60 and his touchdowns by 0.125. Shockingly, his interception rate is actually better this season. The fact that Smith was benched for Vick should come as no surprise given that in his last game against the Bills, Smith threw more interceptions than he did completions.
The most intriguing quarterback statistics this season come from the two Manning brothers. Peyton has been all over the news this season, considering that he broke the record for career passing touchdowns and has been, in general, fantastic as usual. However, the strange thing is that Peyton is actually doing worse than he was a year ago at this time. Manning is, like Smith, performing worse in every category except interceptions. Yes, his numbers are still amazing and any other quarterback would kill for these numbers, but his 70.54 completion percentage is down 1 percent from last season, his 304.86 yards per game is 60 yards off last season’s pace, and his touchdowns are down by 0.5, though he still leads the league in touchdowns per game. His numbers could be lower simply because his 2013 season was so incredible, but it is still fascinating that Peyton Manning is having a worse season this year.
Contrarily, Eli Manning, who has been flying under the radar this year, is doing much better than he was last year. Eli’s 2013 was a little bit of an anomaly; his completion percentage (55.67 percent) and interception rate were absolutely terrible. He led the league in interceptions per game with 1.875. This year, predictably, his completion percentage shot up 9 percent, he increased his touchdowns by 0.75 per game, and his interceptions dropped by over one per game. It is understandable that Eli Manning has greatly improved from last season and that Peyton Manning’s numbers have dropped, yet it is still bizarre to think that, by comparison to 2013, Eli is having a better season than his older brother.
In respect to running backs, the players that seemed poised to be the best in the league for many years to come and the players that have had their careers undermined by injuries have stayed healthy enough to prove why they are so highly regarded. LeSean McCoy, last season’s rushing leader both after Week 8 and at the end of the year, has been reasonably pedestrian by his standards. His yards per carry per game have dropped more than a full yard, from 4.55 to 3.49. His yards per game have taken a significant hit, dropping a full 20 yards. Even his rushing touchdowns have taken a hit. Overall, he is just having a rough year, which is strange considering how, in the off-season, he was claiming he was the best back in the game.
Similarly, it seemed like Reggie Bush had his coming-out party last season, posting his first legitimately good year since he’s been in the NFL and finally showing why he was so highly touted coming out of USC. This season, Bush has been terrible, not just by his standards, but by any back’s standards. His yards per carry have dropped a full yard. More importantly, his yards per game fell from 74 rushing yards per game at this point last season to a lowly 28.5 yards this year. His touchdowns have also dropped. It is interesting to see him struggle so much, especially given the proficiency of the Detroit offense. Though it could be argued that he has been hurt by Calvin Johnson’s injury, his numbers should not have dropped this much from last season.
Two oft-injured RBs have stolen the spotlight from McCoy and Bush: DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster. Last season, Murray was supposed to be the next big thing. Instead, he fell flat as a major disappointment. In 2014, he has been absolutely unstoppable. Last weekend was the first game in which Murray has gained less than 100 yards all season. His yards per carry are up 1 yard, but the most impressive facet of this season is that he is averaging 131.75 yards per game, as opposed to last year’s 71.33. His rushing touchdowns have also significantly increased by 0.375. At this point, DeMarco Murray is on pace for 2,108 yards this season, 3 yards more than Eric Dickerson’s famed rushing record. Unsurprisingly, Murray is currently a strong mid-season MVP candidate.
Arian Foster has long been regarded as a great back that cannot stay healthy, but he is certainly proving his skill this year. Foster increased his yards per carry by 0.6 yards, and his yards per game are all the way up to 109.43, over 30 yards more than last season. Murray has also increased his touchdowns per game by a whopping 0.86 this season, a massive increase. Foster is on track to rush for well over 1,000 yards, the mark of a good season. While McCoy and Bush have faltered this season, Murray and Foster have thrived.
Many players are having different successes from how they performed last season. In most cases, or at least the ones I analyzed, improvement from last year in individual play has led to improved performance from the team, though that is not the case with all players in the league. Likewise, poorer performances from the players have not always hurt their teams. Regardless, Brady, Eli Manning, Murray and Foster have shown the largest positive gain from last year, and Smith, Peyton Manning, McCoy and Bush have suffered some of the most interesting setbacks from this point last season.
Follow Zak on Twitter @zakberliner1 and listen to him on "The War Room" Fridays from 6-7pm
(10/23/14 6:30pm)
It goes without saying that injuries are a serious problem in the NFL. But it seems that problems with injury are much worse, or at least more prevalent, in recent years. Perhaps we are only hearing about injuries more because of various law suits against the league and, as a result, attempts to make the game less vicious. Regardless, injuries are always a high possibility when you have two high-powered athletes running full-speed at each other in full body armor. But what is the extent of these collisions? Is there any way to truly comprehend of what players are experiencing play in and play out, game in and game out? Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith once stated,
“Some of it may seem hokey to some people, but…playing in a football game is like being in 30-40 car accidents. You can find yourself in awkward positions. That stuff takes its toll.”
I’ll admit, Smith’s statement sounds like an extreme use hyperbole. Thirty to 40 car accidents a game? That’s simply not believable, especially coming from the man who pioneered this intelligent statement:
“Don’t worry about the game you just won or the team that we just blew out…uhhh…blown…blown out…Let’s think about what we need to do going forward, and they had…blown out.”
By extension of his interview skills, Smith does not seem like the most credible source when it comes to science. However, the concept Smith poses is an interesting one. How many equivalents of a car accident do players experience in a game? How many in a play? What can we learn about the game of football from these calculations? Let’s look and see what the data actually says.
First, we need to consider the force and acceleration in a car accident. If a car crashes into a tree at a speed of 30 mph with a 160 lb person at the wheel and no seatbelt, the driver will experience a force of 24,068 lbs, which is a deceleration of 4836 ft/s2. That kind of acceleration is equal to 150 “g’s”! A more normal assumption is that the driver will be wearing some sort of stretching seatbelt, which will reduce the force to 3,211.39 lbs. That is equivalent to 20 g’s of acceleration, which seems like a more reasonable estimate. A collision involving someone the size of a football player, like Emmitt Smith, who was 216 lbs, does not change the force too much, however. Regardless, a Smith colliding into a tree at 45 mph in a car would generate 45 g’s. For comparison, a barrel roll in an F-16 fighter jet generates only 9.0 g’s, 5 times less than this car accident. To make a long story short, a car accident causes a ton of force.
With this sort of force generated by just one car accident, it seems improbable at this point that a game could generate the force of 30 of them. If an Emmitt Smith-size player were running in a game, it is reasonable that he would be running at around 15 mph, which equates to about 22 ft/second. In terms of 40-yard dash time, that is 5.45 seconds; yes, it is a slow 40 time, but it is unreasonable to think a player would sprint his maximum speed the entire game. At this kind of speed, a football player will, shockingly, receive an acceleration of a whopping 90 g’s, twice as much as was generated by a car crash at 45 mph. In order to experience a force equivalent to a football collision, Emmitt Smith would need to drive his car, with stretchable seat belts, into a tree at 63.5 mph, just under the speed limit of a normal Interstate Highway.
So, how many car accidents does a running back experience in one game? Between the 2011 and 2013 seasons, the top 45 running backs in rushing yards averaged 14.51 carries and 2.01 receptions per game. If the running back were only hit on plays where he had the ball, and if he went down after the first hit every time, he would experience around 33 car accidents. However, running backs are normally hit more than just once on carries and get hit if they drop a pass. It is therefore conceivable that a running back could easily experience a combined force of 35 or more car accidents, which is unfathomable considering that a player could experience this combined force 16 times a season, excluding playoffs, for years. Thus, surprisingly, Emmitt Smith was actually correct about the number of car accidents NFL players experience.
What are the implications of these calculations? First, it is quite easy to absorb a lot of force in football, which could easily result in injury. As players continue to become faster and more athletic, it could become exponentially more dangerous to play at the professional level. The increase in the number of “physical specimens” entering the league on both sides of the ball could be contributing to a massive influx of injuries in the NFL.
Second, if the NFL and the NFLPA want to reduce the number of retired players suffering from long-term brain damage, it would be smart for them to try to alter the way players play. As pads and helmets have become harder and seemingly more protective, players may have gradually become more violent on hits, for they are less fearful of injury. This lessened fear has possibly caused a more violent mentality, a mentality that needs to change for the safety of the league’s players.
Finally, for years, Commissioner Roger Goodell has been adamant about extending the season from 16 to 18 games. Given that players experience these 35 or more car collisions per game, adding another 70 car accidents’ worth of damage to the players seems absolutely ludicrous. Goodell needs to stop this pursuit in order to save the lives of the players he claims to care so much about.
I would like to thank Dr. John M. Beggs of the Indiana University Physics Department for his assistance in these calculations.
Follow Zak on Twitter @zakberliner1 and listen to him on "The War Room" Fridays from 6-7pm
Sources:
<http://www.boiseintegratedchiropractic.com/chiropractic-adjustments/chiropractic-media/94-quotes-chiropractic-healthcare>
<www.hansonco.net/Collision%20physics%20for%20football%20helmets.pdf>
<Hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/carcr2.html>
<www.popularmechanics.com/outdoors/sports/physics/4212171>
<walterfootball.com/emmitt.php>
<www.wired.com/2011/04/crashing-into-wall/>
(10/18/14 3:16pm)
Is it just me, or has the NFL been plagued by massive amounts of injuries this season? I’m not talking about minor bench players either; I’m talking about a seemingly large number of injuries to important players throughout the league. This season, fantasy football conversations have been more focused on who you lost to injury than who you have starting. Of course, there have been varying degrees of success for how squads have handled these injuries. Some teams, like the Rams, are struggling to replace players they lost in the preseason, while others, like the Chargers, seamlessly switch from starter to backup. In this blog, I will look at some of the most significant injuries this season and how it affects/has affected those players’ teams.
In Week 2, Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins went down with a dislocated ankle, forcing him out indefinitely. So far, he still has not reappeared on the playing field in full pads and uniform. Remember Griffin’s rookie year, when he set the league on fire with his running and passing abilities? Then, at the end of that season, Griffin tore his ACL and had to have it surgically repaired in the offseason. Last season, he was not the same quarterback from that Rookie of the Year campaign and his college Heisman Trophy-winning performance. This year was supposed to be his year. He was healthy again; he had DeSean Jackson, a brand-new deep-threat receiver. Griffin even had a new coach and offensive coordinator, removed from the debacles of Mike and Kyle Shanahan. Yet, there he is, injured once again. Yes, in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Redskins also drafted Kirk Cousins out of Michigan State, who has proven a relatively capable backup. The issue comes from the fact that, in order to get Griffin, Washington traded away the sixth pick in the draft that year, a second round pick in 2012, and first round picks from both 2013 and 2014 to the St. Louis Rams. They completely mortgaged their future on a player who has spent the better part of his NFL career on the sideline. If Griffin continues to get hurt, or one of these injuries proves career-ending, this team would have taken hundreds of steps back to take a player that never panned out.
Some teams pay for injuries in a more literal sense: the injured players are sometimes the most expensive ones. The St. Louis Rams, who seem to be coming out as winners in the trade of their 2012 first round draft pick, have lost big time on Sam Bradford. Bradford, the Rams would-be starting quarterback, is out for the season with a torn ACL he suffered in the preseason. What’s worse, he tore the exact same ACL that forced him to end last season on IR. Bradford, ever since he was drafted in 2010, has been injured almost every year. As time grows further from the draft in which he was taken, however, his injuries become more and more painful for the Rams. When he was drafted, Bradford signed a 6-year, $78 million contract, the largest rookie contract ever signed. In a year like this, where Bradford will not even take a snap in the regular season, a $17.6 million cap-hit is immense. He is taking up money where the Rams could really use it. I am sure the Rams would love to sign more capable receivers or pick up a good veteran quarterback to replace current rookie starter Austin Davis. However, a lot of the money they could use for these purposes are wrapped up in paying for a man who is never on the field when he is needed.
Likewise, the Miami Dolphins went out of their way to court Knowshon Moreno, one of this off-season’s most coveted free agents. Eventually, they signed him to a one-year, $3 million contract. In the summer, Moreno underwent arthroscopic knee surgery, but he was ready by the start of the season and exploded in Week 1. In Week 2, however, Moreno dislocated his elbow. He did not play again until last Sunday, where he suffered a torn ACL. He is now out for the season. The Dolphins were partially sculpting their offense around their new star halfback. Instead, Miami is left thinking of what could have been, since Moreno was really only healthy for one game this entire 2014 campaign. Though Miami has Lamar Miller, a capable player, as a backup, Moreno’s contract is still a $3 million cap hit for this season. The Dolphins, because of an injury on a relatively large contract, will be hard-pressed to ensure proper depth at the running back position while bolstering other positions on the field.
All three of these teams made huge gambles on particular “franchise players” and got burned when those stars inevitably became injured. In addition, all three teams have struggled immensely without these players, reaching a combined record of 3-12 this season. Compare this to the 5-1 San Diego Chargers, who have experienced complete gutting of their backfield. Starter Ryan Mathews has been out for a significant amount of time with an ACL injury. Second-stringer Danny Woodhead is out for the season with a broken fibula, and third-stringer Donald Brown has missed a few weeks with a concussion. Regardless, the Chargers have still found ways to win behind Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers, and the new starting running back, undrafted rookie Branden Oliver, has been fantastic. As the Chargers are showing it takes a combination of great depth and favorable contracts in order to beat the injury bug. Unfortunately for the Redskins, Rams and Dolphins, they did not heed this concept. Gambling on the shoulders of just one player never yields success.
Follow Zak on Twitter @zakberliner1 and listen to him on "The War Room" Fridays from 6-7pm
(10/03/14 12:00am)
Currently, one of the biggest debates among NFL circles is, “Who is the best QB from the 2012 draft class: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, or Russell Wilson?” The debate started as a two-man race between Luck and Griffin, but as Griffin has fallen off (supposedly), Wilson has gained traction in the argument. I am here to attempt to silence the debate--or at least the debate of who was better in 2012 and 2013--using all-encompassing statistics! So, let’s begin.
I want to start this debate off with a brief note in regard to championships. Some people use “number of rings” as the ultimate trump card in arguments such as this. Seeing as Wilson just won the Super Bowl, he would get the nod in this category. However, number of championships is simply not accurate in a TEAM SPORT. Did Russell Wilson go out and defeat the Denver Broncos singlehandedly, playing every position on the field? Of course not! Some people forget that a defense can help win championships. I covered a week ago how good Seattle’s defense is, so one can infer that the defense led Wilson to the ring or at least helped immensely. Besides, the ring argument leads to strange conclusions. Was Trent Dilfer better than Dan Marino? Was Brad Johnson better than Jim Kelly? Is Joe Flacco better than Philip Rivers? No? Didn’t think so.
The statistics that I will be using in this analysis are larger, ratio-type statistics that encompass almost all major statistical categories for quarterbacks. I will be using fantasy points, passer rating, yards per attempt, and TD/interception ratio. Fantasy points, believe it or not, is a wonderful way to give a specific numerical value to certain statistics, like passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, and even rushing yards. This specific tabulation awards 1 point for every 25 passing yards, 4 points for every passing touchdown, -2 points for every pick, 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, and 6 points for every rushing touchdown (there are more categories as well). Passer rating is a complex calculation that combines the ratios of completions per pass attempt, yards per pass attempt, touchdowns per pass attempt, and interceptions per pass attempt. Yards per attempt combines both yards per completion and completion percentage. Touchdown to interception is the number of touchdowns divided by the number of interceptions, so the larger the number, the better it is. Time to actually get into the numbers coagulated from the combination of the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
The average number of fantasy points scored over the course of 2012 and 2013 for Andrew Luck was about 17.78. Robert Griffin III scored an average of 18.99 fantasy points. Russell Wilson trails at 17.06 points. Griffin takes the category of fantasy points, though the massive amount of rushing yards his rookie year (826) definitely helped. In the category of passer rating, designed to be the perfect determinant of QB skill, Luck averaged 93.94 out of a maximum of 153.8. Griffin had an average rating of 102.31, and Wilson had an average of 110.13. So Russell Wilson wins passer rating in a landslide. In yards per attempt, all three quarterbacks were pretty close statistically. Luck averaged 6.84 yards per attempt, Griffin had 7.71, and Wilson led with 8.25 yards per attempt. It all comes down to this: touchdown to interception ratio. Andrew Luck, with his painful 18 rookie interceptions, averaged 1.70. Griffin III, bolstered by just 5 picks his entire 2012 campaign, averaged 2.12. Finally, Russell Wilson averaged…2.74. Wilson takes the TD/INT ratio.
That's it. Out of the four statistical categories, Russell Wilson led the competition in three of them, basically confirming that Wilson, statistically, was the best in 2012 and 2013 combined. Is that the entire picture? Maybe not. Luck was hindered by the lack of running game both seasons, so he was forced to pass all the time. Griffin was injured frequently, and it could be argued that he was not 100% healthy last season. Wilson has had “alright,” but not “good” or “great,” receivers throughout his career. This season, Luck has already thrown for 1305 yards and 13 TDs. Russell Wilson’s TD/INT ratio is 6. And Griffin is…hurt again. Over their first two seasons, Wilson was the best of the three. However, I see Luck finishing his career as the best to come out of the 2012 Draft.
Follow Zak on Twitter @zakberliner1 and listen to him on "The War Room" Fridays from 6-7 pm
(09/28/14 2:53pm)
By: Zak Berliner
When you hear “the Seattle Seahawks,” what is the first thought that comes to mind? Russell Wilson? Richard Sherman? Super Bowl Champion? For most followers of football, the answer is most likely “defense.” Yes, the famed Seattle defense that all the NFL analysts gush about in almost every telecast. The football fan is force-fed the concept that Seattle has this unreal defense that can stop any offense at any time. All this talk is wonderful, but where is the proof that the Seahawks have a defense that is significantly above average? Or is it just like all the other defenses in the NFL? I wanted to know, so I did a statistical analysis that can determine if the Seattle defense from the 2013 and 2014 seasons, as of now, is that superior to the average defense. In order to get a good picture of the overall skill of the defense, I analyzed various statistics for the opposing offense, namely score, total yards, passing yards, completion percentage, rushing yards, and turnovers. Hopefully, this analysis can give an idea of whether the “Legion of Boom” moniker has any truth behind it, or if it is just a media fabrication. So, without further ado, let’s get into the stats.
The first statistic I tested is total score. If a defense can stop a team from scoring, it is reasonable to say that that defense is talented. Up to this point in time, since Week 1 of 2013, the average amount of points scored in an NFL game is 23.38 points. That is higher than I initially expected. By contrast, the average amount of points scored against the Seahawks is just 15.69. It seems like a big difference, but is the difference between the numbers statistically significant? In short, yes. Seattle significantly allows fewer points than the average team. The next stat I tested is total yards. A defense could be great at goal line stands but terrible in allowing yardage. But in fact, the average team allows 350.98 yards, while Seattle allows a mere 282.22 yards, an incredibly significant difference. Seattle is much better at stopping offenses from driving down the field. Seattle also allows significantly fewer passing yards, allowing only 184.97 yards as opposed to the league average of 238.37. People claim that Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor are great at forcing incompletions. Are they? The league average completion percentage is 61.93%. The percentage against Seattle is also pretty high at 60.67%. However, surprisingly, the difference between those two percentages is statistically significant. Some people also think the Seahawks’ run defense is incredible. There is not a huge difference, however, between the 112.69 yards against an average defense and the 97.58 yards against Seattle; regardless, that is also significant. Finally, we come to forced turnovers, a hallmark of a good defense. The average defense forces 1.54 turnovers per game. Seattle forces 2.2. That difference is….significant! Seattle’s defense was significantly better than the average defense in every category tested! The Seahawks truly have a defense far better than the regular NFL team.
One other thing about Seattle: it is notorious for being a tough place to play. Every analyst points out the loudness of the “12th Man” of CenturyLink Field. However, does it actually make that much of a difference in how well the defense played? I analyzed the same statistical categories between Seattle’s games at home and on the road since the start of the 2013 season. When Seattle was at home, they gave up an average of 14.6 points, whereas on the road they gave up 16.78 points. The difference between those two numbers is actually not significant. Essentially, the Seahawks’ defense gave up the same amount of points at home and on the road. In total yards, the defense surrendered an average of 262.1 total yards at home, while it surrendered 302.33 total yards on the road. As opposed to the score, there was a significant difference between home and away yards allowed. When in Seattle, opposing teams threw for an average of 175.5 yards with a completion percentage of 59.43%, while they threw for 194.44 yards with a completion percentage of 61.91% when not in Seattle. Both the difference between passing yards and the difference between completion rates are significant. When at CenturyLink, teams rushed for 86.6 yards; at other stadiums they rushed for 108.56 yards, which is significantly different from the road value. Finally, at home, the Seahawk’s defense forced 2.4 turnovers, while they only forced 2 turnovers on the road. The difference in turnovers was significant. Therefore, the Seahawks defense played better at home in every category, with the exception of points allowed.
So, let’s review what the statistics have told us. The numbers proved that Seattle’s defense was far above average in points scored, total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, passing completion percentage, rushing yards allowed, and turnovers allowed. The Seahawks’ D was also superior at home in every category except for points allowed. Ultimately, these results confirm that Seattle’s defense is fantastic. They also confirm that the Seahawks do play better in Seattle. When other offenses face the Seahawks, they will need to prepare for a tough game, especially in Seattle.
Follow Zak on Twitter @zakberliner1 and listen to him on "The War Room" Fridays from 6-7 pm